I pulled 90 days of data from 11 TikTok Shops (this is data directly from TikTok Shop).
Two did over $1M. Two haven't made a sale yet.
Same team. Same playbook.
The difference is in the second video…..
(Want me to check yours? Hit reply.)
Your best creators post twice
The number that explains the gap
In three of the four biggest shops, creators who posted two or more videos drove over 90% of creator video sales.
Shop A: 99%. Shop B: 97%. Shop D: 93%.
The fourth, Shop E, is still ramping: 62%.
In those three, creators who posted once drove under 10%.
💡 The sample gets you the first video. The money is in the second.
All 11 shops, side by side
Look at the last column
The two $1M+ shops have 23% to 37% of creators posting three or more times.
Most of the rest sit between 6% and 13%.
That's the gap. The winners get creators to come back.
Every shop is in a different phase
So a 6% three-timer rate isn't a death sentence
Cold start (G, J, K). Two haven't sold yet. Shop J is in a brutally crowded niche, so we're sampling hard. 9,000 creators reached. Judge it on videos, not sales.
New to the channel (C, F, H, I). Already selling. Shop H grew 11x in 90 days. Shop C had only 20 creators post, but 4 of them posted 3+ times and drove 83% of its video sales.
Ramp (E). Samples up 9x. Sales lag. That's normal.
Steady (D). About $60K a quarter, every sample asked for by the creator.
Scale (A and B). About $1.3M and $1.5M. Shop A made around 40% of it on LIVE.
"So why send so many samples?"
Napkin math from Shop B
9,149 samples shipped.
5,784 creators posted.
2,326 posted twice or more.
Those 2,326 drove 97% of the video sales.
Roughly 1 sample in 4 found a creator who came back.
You can't tell who'll post five times. So you send enough to find out.
What we track now
Samples shipped is the wrong scoreboard
Repeat rate. What share of creators post 2+ and 3+ times. Monthly, per shop.
The second-video nudge. First video goes live, they get a message inside a week asking for the next one.
Re-sample the repeaters. Posted three times? You get the new SKU first.
One-video creators are tests. Nudge them once, then move the samples on.
💡 The most successful shops have affiliates who post more than once.
It opens an email straight to me. One line is enough.
Go get the second video.
What did you think of today's newsletter?
- Paul 👊
PS. I am South African….. my daughter asked me the other day: “Dad, where in Africa is South Africa?……. the irony is she won a class award for being smart 😞….